The secret of TikTok’s
success since its launch has been its algorithm, which presents videos
to its 170 million users in the United States. The ability to synthesize
users’ interests and keep them scrolling has been the reason the app
has grown stratospherically—and is part of the reason why the average
user spends more time on the app than watching the average feature film.

But
TikTok’s fate is in jeopardy, with its owner ByteDance reportedly
approaching a unique deal involving the Trump administration. Karoline
Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told Fox News over the weekend
that “the algorithm will also be controlled by America,” as part of a
deal that would see the app’s data held on secure servers operated by Oracle, the large U.S. data company, and run with a consortium reportedly including media mogul Lachlan Murdoch, the son of Rupert Murdoch. Trump’s press secretary outlined more details of the deal today.

“The future of TikTok has never looked as grim as now,” says Marcus Bösch, a TikTok researcher and consultant. 

If
the United States does manage to wrest control of the algorithm
powering the U.S. version of TikTok and deliver it to American
ownership, it would be a win for the White House. It would assuage
anti-China hawks, who fear the role the app plays in Americans’
lifestyles. Their campaign against TikTok’s continued existence led to
the ban on its operation in the U.S., which Trump has repeatedly delayed
through executive orders. Without evidence, those who oppose TikTok
argue that its algorithm could be weaponized to push anti-U.S. sentiment
onto millions of impressionable young users.

But
the latest developments could be a Pyrrhic victory. If the U.S. version
of the app’s algorithm differs in any way from the core app’s offering,
American citizens could end up with a subpar version of TikTok—and
abandon it in droves. TikTok did not immediately respond to Fast Company’s request for comment.

While
the specifics of what a post-deal TikTok would look like are unclear,
the current app heavily leverages an algorithm developed over the years
by ByteDance, including being trained on predecessor apps. There are
fears among experts that this highly honed feed could become one
designed solely to promote Trump-favorable content.

“A
nationalized feed may feel safer or more familiar, but I believe it
risks narrowing what people see to American concerns, while filtering
out the messy, global commons that once made TikTok so distinctive,”
says Tom Divon, a researcher studying TikTok at the Hebrew University in
Israel.

Others
are equally worried about a whiplash effect. “I anticipate stark shifts
in the FYP algorithm,” says Jessica Maddox, associate professor of
media studies at the University of Georgia. Maddox has already seen
TikTok’s algorithm tending to promote what she calls “daytime TV
content” during politically tense times—including footage of cutesy
animals and toddlers or wholesome dances. “I see this becoming more of
the norm with users struggling to ‘train’ their algorithm back to their
specific interests,” Maddox says. “TikTok will become more fluffy,
general content instead of being known for its hyper-specific niches.”

And
given that its success has, thus far, stemmed from its ability to offer
hyper-specific tailoring of content to its users—in contrast to
homegrown tech titans like YouTube and Instagram—sacrificing that
advantage seems like a great leveler.

Donald Trump has previously
said that Chinese President Xi Jinping has approved the terms of the
deal, though Chinese and U.S. explanations of the agreement have
differed, particularly around the future of the algorithm. According to
Chinese state media, China’s Communist Party has said that both parties
have reached an agreement to allow ByteDance to retain control of
TikTok’s algorithm—something Trump appears to have contradicted. 

Bösch
believes that the app’s fate could be similar to X after it was
transformed from Twitter—one that looks unrecognizable to its core of
users but retains a loyal following among a committed minority. And
under Trump, what is and isn’t allowed could change significantly.

“I
can foresee political terms that don’t align with an administration’s
political goals being suppressed,” Maddox says. “Users may also see a
change in content moderation guidelines, with objections that could once
be overturned on appeal no longer being the case.”

Those who have
studied TikTok extensively also fear that the quality of content could
drop if users desert the platform. “This one will most likely be filled
with so much AI-infused propaganda,” Bösch says. “Nice to study. Most likely not so nice to use in private.”